Well, the stealth press release went out late Thursday night for Tony Strickland’s card table event, but that didn’t stop Democrats and Independents of Senate District 19 from showing up to ask Phony Tony some tough questions about the state budget crisis. And it’s a good thing we showed up, or this would have been one abysmal, lonely event for Senator Strickland, who stood around with aides and a lone camera man for the first half hour.

Strickland is one of several Republicans who have signed pledges not to raise taxes, and have stood in the way of any budget resolution that entails a tax increase. Plenty of voters turned out today to plead with him to put aside partisan politics and work toward building consensus to solve the tremendous problems facing California. Holding hard and fast to the anti-tax pledge strikes many as foolish in light of a $40 billion dollar budget shortfall, and more petty partisan theatrics as California hurtles toward the brink of bankruptcy.

Strickland was polite yet firm about his refusal to reassess an increase in the vehicle lisencing fee, and referenced past voter support for the 2/3rd majority rule as a free license to excuse the partisan behavior of a handful of Republican lawmakers hell-bent on lengthening the budget crisis and using it to force through an increasingly minority position. Strickland’s attempts to raise the flat tax as a possible reform only served to reveal the extent to which ideology, rather than common sense, is holding the state budget hostage. The idea of raising a significant, regressive sales tax to replace the state tax system did not strike Strickland as being at odds with the current economic climate in which consumers are already reducing purchases. And it’s doubtless safe to say that with the state about to run out of money in February, now is not the time to be chasing after what amount to hypothetical and whimsical fancies.

In fact, Strickland’s proposals for addressing the financial crisis facing the state boiled down to: rewriting California’s more progressive tax code with a flat tax system, and putting in place infrastructure projects. When I asked him point blank how he intended to pay for infrastructure problems with the state facing bankruptcy (and all the problems that has caused for state and municipal bonds) he used it as an opportunity to acknowledge the enormity of the problem, rather than offer a solution.

It’s amazing that in a year in which Obama was swept into office in a landslide and Americans are looking for ways to come together as a community to make tough sacrifices, politicians like Strickland would rather gut education and the social services more and more Californians are turning to as they lose their jobs, than raise taxes by even a few cents. Please, brother can you spare a dime? Because with an attitude like this, we’re going to need it.

It is with a heavy heart that I report the news that things aren’t looking good in the Jackson-Strickland race here in SD-19. Strickland has retaken a lead in the provisional and absentee counts that he is unlikely to relinquish barring a small miracle, as favorable Santa Barbara County is nearly entirely counted, leaving pro-Strickland Ventura County and the pro-Strickland sliver of L.A. County to probably pad his lead. The Santa Barbara Independent has more:

Tony Strickland surged to a 1,560 vote lead over Hannah-Beth Jackson Wednesday, on the strength of newly counted ballots in Ventura County. Santa Barbara county’s registrar also reported counting new ballots, which favored the Democrat, but not by nearly enough to make up for the Republican’s strength in Ventura.

It is the first significant lead for either candidate in the closely-contested 19th state senate district since Election Day, and puts Strickland in a commanding position, as counting continues in three counties with portions of the sprawling district.

The overall tally now stands at:
Strickland 187,631 (50.20)
Jackson 186,071 (49.79)

A 1,560 vote lead normally wouldn’t be insurmountable with well over 50,000 votes left to count. Unfortunately, most of those voters are likely to accrue in Strickland’s favor:

About 1,000 vote by mail ballots remain to be counted in Santa Barbara County, the only place where she has run ahead of Strickland, in addition to about 6,000 provisional ballots; the latter are likely to favor Jackson, as many of them are believed to have been cast by late-registering UCSB students.

However, Strickland is winning handily in Ventura County, which has about 40,000 absentees and 15,000 provisionals outstanding; he has also run well ahead of Jackson in the small part of the district that is in L.A. County. There, the registrar has about 225,000 more vote by mail ballots to count, but only a small number of them are in the 19th district.

Make no mistake about it: this is a tough loss to take if all goes as it appears. For me, it’s even tougher than Prop 8, and not just because I live in the district. With Prop 8, there was a sense that we lost due to complacency and poor messaging; with Hannah-Beth, we made our best case and put everything we could into the fight, given the simultaneous urgency of a national election. The idea that extremist Phony Tony Strickland will be my State Senator for the next four years is literally sickening to me.

But there is some good news for the future that should worry both of the execrable Stricklands. Red Zone candidate Ferial Masry ran a surprisingly close race against Audra Strickland in the 37th Assembly district representing parts of Ventura and L.A. counties, coming within 3 points of victory in that tough district (and this despite numerous disadvantages in funding, candidate support and perceived “Americanness”). There is no reason to believe that we cannot build on this success by holding Audra accountable for her votes.

As for Tony? He’s got three big problems. The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since. This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages. The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings. Given the precarious, sour and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result. As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another. Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in 2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate. Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close. He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed. He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur. He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning. The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning. More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.