A new Associated Press-GfK Poll finds a widespread hunger for improvements to the health care system, which suggests President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies have a good chance for a political gain with their successful enactment of the “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act”. According to the poll only 4 percent of Americans say the existing health care system shouldn’t have been changed at all. Although there had been no clear majority opinion on the best way to reform the health care system, most polls have indicated that at least 40% favored President Obama’s plan while another 13% favored an even more extensive overhaul.
The challenge for President Obama was that although there was always great support for health care reform there was never a particular formula for reform that was easily supported by enough members of Congress in order to obtain the supermajority needed for earlier passage.
Imagine if the President needed to order a military action for our national security and that 96% of the public and Congress were supportive of this action. Now suppose further that there was no obvious consensus on which strategic plan: land, sea or air forces, to use. Should the President take no action at all? This turns out to be the trouble for the GOP , both in their opposition to the health care reform by their entire Congressional membership and their alleged desire to repeal it. They may now be labeled as the party against all health care reform even though some form of health care reform was supported by almost all Americans. Even worse for the GOP is that many reforms are expected to be very popular once enacted – especially prohibition of pre-existing conditions, students remaining on parents policies until 26 years of age and tax breaks for small business.
The GOP and the Tea Party gambled that health care reform could be blocked. Now that they have failed, they continue to fight for repeal and block other initiatives that are linked to support for working Americans including extension of unemployment benefits.
The GOP and Tea Party brand is already demographically and regionally limited and now may be further limited to Americans who were against health care reform and against support for working families. The Democrats stand to lose some Congressional seats in 2010 because President Obama is not on the ticket. Do not be surprised if 2012 is a good year for Democrats, especially if the economy improves.
Jay Kapitz
Dem Club of Conejo Valley, Election Strategy Chair
VCDCC, Alternate for Julia Browley
