It is with a heavy heart that I report the news that things aren’t looking good in the Jackson-Strickland race here in SD-19. Strickland has retaken a lead in the provisional and absentee counts that he is unlikely to relinquish barring a small miracle, as favorable Santa Barbara County is nearly entirely counted, leaving pro-Strickland Ventura County and the pro-Strickland sliver of L.A. County to probably pad his lead. The Santa Barbara Independent has more:

Tony Strickland surged to a 1,560 vote lead over Hannah-Beth Jackson Wednesday, on the strength of newly counted ballots in Ventura County. Santa Barbara county’s registrar also reported counting new ballots, which favored the Democrat, but not by nearly enough to make up for the Republican’s strength in Ventura.

It is the first significant lead for either candidate in the closely-contested 19th state senate district since Election Day, and puts Strickland in a commanding position, as counting continues in three counties with portions of the sprawling district.

The overall tally now stands at:
Strickland 187,631 (50.20)
Jackson 186,071 (49.79)

A 1,560 vote lead normally wouldn’t be insurmountable with well over 50,000 votes left to count. Unfortunately, most of those voters are likely to accrue in Strickland’s favor:

About 1,000 vote by mail ballots remain to be counted in Santa Barbara County, the only place where she has run ahead of Strickland, in addition to about 6,000 provisional ballots; the latter are likely to favor Jackson, as many of them are believed to have been cast by late-registering UCSB students.

However, Strickland is winning handily in Ventura County, which has about 40,000 absentees and 15,000 provisionals outstanding; he has also run well ahead of Jackson in the small part of the district that is in L.A. County. There, the registrar has about 225,000 more vote by mail ballots to count, but only a small number of them are in the 19th district.

Make no mistake about it: this is a tough loss to take if all goes as it appears. For me, it’s even tougher than Prop 8, and not just because I live in the district. With Prop 8, there was a sense that we lost due to complacency and poor messaging; with Hannah-Beth, we made our best case and put everything we could into the fight, given the simultaneous urgency of a national election. The idea that extremist Phony Tony Strickland will be my State Senator for the next four years is literally sickening to me.

But there is some good news for the future that should worry both of the execrable Stricklands. Red Zone candidate Ferial Masry ran a surprisingly close race against Audra Strickland in the 37th Assembly district representing parts of Ventura and L.A. counties, coming within 3 points of victory in that tough district (and this despite numerous disadvantages in funding, candidate support and perceived “Americanness”). There is no reason to believe that we cannot build on this success by holding Audra accountable for her votes.

As for Tony? He’s got three big problems. The first is that Ventura County flipped from red to blue earlier this year in terms of voter registrations–and those numbers have shifted even farther in our direction since. This is not just due to discontent with Bush and the Obama Effect: emigres from Los Angeles are swelling Ventura County’s ranks as more and more Angelenos come to appreciate this oft-overlooked area’s natural advantages. The path to victory for Republicans like Tony Strickland is only going to get steeper from here.

Second, Obama’s first term will likely end up going smoothly with good approval ratings, or very poorly with low approval ratings. Given the precarious, sour and moody state of the nation, we’re unlikely to see an apathetic, middling result. As a consequence, the next presidential election is unlikely to be a close contest one way or another. Our poor experiences in California this year will likely have taught us that we need to Stay for Change–especially if a Democratic Governor is elected in 2010, putting GOP legislators as the biggest remaining obstacle to real change in California.

But Tony’s third and biggest problem is that as an incumbent he will have 4-year voting record in the State Senate. Tony’s campaign this year was built entirely on lies; so much so, in fact, that I can say with all sincerity that he ran the most dishonest campaign I’ve personally had the misfortune of seeing up close. He will no longer be able to run as an “independent”, as all his yard signs and mailers deceitfully claimed. He will no longer be able to claim “green” credentials by posing as an alternative energy entrepreneur. He will simply be the incumbent: the Republican incumbent, and with a track record to boot.

So assuming that demography is destiny and the remaining ballots sort themselves out as poorly as we expect, it’s not the end of the road, but merely the beginning. The Stricklands will have earned themselves 2 to 4 years of respite through dishonest campaigning. More Democratic voters, increased intensity, and an unequivocal track record will see them on their way out of Sacramento in a few short years.

Title: Nationwide Rally Against 8
Location: Mission Park, Main Street Ventura
Link out: Click here
Description: Rally and March for Equality

We will not tolerate discrimination!

Join the Stonewall Democrats of Ventura County, Ventura County Rainbow Alliance and other local activist groups to rally for equality and peace.

Bring your No on 8 signs, tell your friends and meet us at Mission Park in Ventura, California for a march to equality.

Cut and paste this link for a map http://www.mapquest.com/maps?city=Ventura&state=CA&address=200+E.+Main+Street

For carpooling information, email hschmidt@callutheran.edu
Start Time: 12:00
Date: 2008-11-15
End Time: 14:00

Title: Brush up on your politics with JEFFREY TOOBIN
Location: Campbell Hall UCSB
Description: CNN legal analyst and New Yorker staff writer Jeffrey Toobin takes readers inside the most important and secret legal body in our country to examine the dynamic among the nine people who decide the law of the land, The Supreme Court, in his book The Nine. Toobin will discuss the court\’s transition to a conservative majority and the 2008 presidential election.
Call (805) 893-3535 to buy your tickets today!
Start Time: 7:30 PM
Date: 2008-11-13
End Time: 10:00 Pm

Data from http://vote.sos.ca.gov and http://recorder.countyofventura.org/Election%20Result.htm

These are the results from both the County of Ventura and the State of California for the November 4, 2008 Election as of November 06, 2008.

Ventura County Registration & Turnout
425,968 Voters
Vote Count Percent
Precinct Totals Turnout 182,283 42.79%
Vote by Mail Turnout 60,537 14.21%
Total 242,820 57.00%

U.S. President – California Statewide Results
Barack Obama (Dem) 6,308,161 61.00%
John McCain (Rep) 3,849,431 37.2%
Alan Keyes (AI) 30,586 0.3%
Cynthia McKinney (Grn) 28,431 0.2%
Bob Barr (Lib) 51,096 0.5%
Ralph Nader (P&F) 80,993 0.8%

U.S. President – Ventura County Results
Barack Obama (Dem) 132,937 55.4%
John McCain (Rep) 103,256 43.0%
Alan Keyes (AI) 763 0.3%
Cynthia McKinney (Grn) 457 0.1%
Bob Barr (Lib) 1,222 0.5%
Ralph Nader (P&F) 1,543 0.7%

U.S. Congress – District 23, District Wide Results
Lois Capps (Dem) 130,595 67.6%
Matt T. Kokkonen (Rep) 62,832 32.4%

U.S. Congress – District 24, District Wide Results
Marta Ann Jorgensen (Dem) 91,289 42.0%
Elton Gallegly (Rep) 126,052 58.0%

State Senate – District 23, District Wide Results
Fran Pavley (Dem) 187,245 67.7%
Rick Montaine (Rep) 74,327 26.9%
Colin Goldman (Lib) 15,125 5.4%

State Senate – District 19, District Wide Results
Hannah-Beth Jackson (Dem) 153,106 50.1%
Tony Strickland (Rep) 152,998 49.9%

State Senate – District 17, District Wide Results
Bruce David McFarland (Dem) 118,463 45.2%
George Runner (Rep) 143,097 54.8%

State Assembly – District 37, District Wide Results
Ferial Masry (Dem) 69,646 48.5%
Audra Strickland (Rep) 73,673 51.5%

State Assembly – District 35, District Wide Results
Pedro Nava (Dem) 87,127 66.7%
Gregory G. Gandrud (Rep) 43,641 33.3%

State Assembly – District 38, District Wide Results
Carole L. Lutness (Dem) 68,357 45.9%
Cameron Smyth (Rep) 80,353 54.1%

State Assembly – District 41, District Wide Results
Julia Brownley (Dem) 92,323 66.6%
Mark Bernsley (Rep) 46,308 33.4%

Proposition 1A = Y Safe, Reliable High-Speed Train Bond Act
Yes 5,072,778 52.2%
No 4,661,366 47.8%

Proposition 2 = Yes Standards for Confining Farm Animals
Yes 6,259,522 63.2%
No 3,656,765 36.8%

Proposition 3 = Yes Children’s Hospital Bond Act. Grant Program
Yes 5,314,603 54.9%
No 4,383,084 45.1%

Proposition 4 = No Parent Notification Before Terminating Minor’s Pregnancy
Yes 4,761,793 48.0%
No 5,157,390 52.0%

Proposition 5 = No Nonviolent Drug Offense. Sentencing, Parole, Rehabilitation
Yes 3,910,125 40.0%
No 5,843,962 60.0%

Proposition 6 = No Police, Law Enforcement Funding. Criminal Laws
Yes 2,927,597 30.7%
No 6,581,530 69.3%

Proposition 7 = No Renewable Energy Generation
Yes 3,419,193 35.1%
No 6,307,979 64.9%

Proposition 8 = Yes Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry
Yes 5,387,939 52.5%
No 4,883,460 47.5%

Proposition 9 = Yes Criminal Justice System. Victims’ Rights. Parole
Yes 5,100,970 53.5%
No 4,438,988 46.5%

Proposition 10 = No Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Renewable Energy Bonds
Yes 3,889,794 40.2%
No 5,763,536 59.8%

Proposition 11 = Yes Redistricting
Yes 4,666,457 50.6%
No 4,567,689 49.4%

Proposition 12 = Yes Veterans’ Bond
Yes 5,998,849 63.5%
No 3,452,835 36.5%

Ventura County Local Races

Ventura County Board of Education TA 3
Mark Lisagor 23,461 57.94%
Christopher Valenzano 16,659 41.14%

Ventura County Board of Education TA 5
Dan Miller 8,387 33.45%
Ramon Flores 16,448 65.59%

Conejo Valley Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem
Marlon Delano Williams 1,352 1.96%
Julie Svitenko 8,681 12.55%
Scott Lamp 6,626 9.58%
Dennis Hatland 10,277 14.86%
John Andersen 10,687 15.46%
Betsy Connolly 14,802 21.41%
Douglas Nickles 4,180 6.05%
Peggy Buckles 12,337 17.84%

Cuyama Joint Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
No information

Camarillo Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
Ron Speakman 13,005 19.38%
William Little 12,305 18.34%
Patty Lerner 11,529 17.18%
Susan Herrera 8,187 12.20%
Judith Chuidian 9,228 13.75%
Sandra Berg 12,558 18.71%

El Tejon Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
Paula Regan 34 20.61%
Ana Soares 12 7.27%
Gary Sokolowski 10 6.06%
Jennie Jenkins 27 16.36%
Kenneth Hurst 27 16.36%
John Fleming 24 14.55%
Peter Kjenaas 9 5.45%
Bradford Oliver 7 4.24%
Terry Brennan 15 9.09%

Fillmore Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
John Holladay 1,744 25.14%
Mark Austin 984 14.18%
Virginia De La Piedra 2,023 29.16%
John Garnica 2,166 31.22%

Moorpark Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
Donna Lacour 3,495 17.05%
Lou Langkusch 2,802 13.67%
Ute Van Dam 3,518 17.16%
Natialie Panossian 2,775 13.54%
Gregory Barker 3,764 18.36%
Bruce Thomas 4,053 19.77%

Oak Park Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
Barbara Laifman 1,934 27.90%
Jan Iceland 2,356 33.99%
Edward Kaz 1,828 26.37%
Philip Bonoli 794 11.45%

Simi Valley Unified School District – Gov Brd Mem.
ERIC SMITH 8,227 10.44%
DEBBIE SANDLAND 18,064 22.92%
BRAD JASHINSKY 6,791 8.62%
JANICE DIFATTA 14,349 18.21%
RAY CRUZ 12,263 15.56%
ROB COLLINS 18,874 23.95%

Santa Paula Union High School District – Gov Brd Mem.
CHRIS WILSON 2,166 24.44%
CATHERINE SEPULVEDA 1,684 19.00%
ANDREW F. CASTANEDA 1,023 11.54%
YOLIE CERDA 1,277 14.41%
DIANA S. PONCE-GOMEZ 2,675 30.18%

Hueneme School District – Gov Brd Mem.
RAFAEL ”RALPH” RAMOS 4,026 37.15%
SCOTT SWENSON 2,798 25.82%
DONNA L. BRANSTROM 3,934 36.30%

Oxnard School District – Gov Brd Mem.
AURELIO JAUREGUI 6,616 24.35%
ALBERT ”AL” DUFF 8,450 31.09%
DENIS O’LEARY 11,886 43.74%

Pleasant Valley School District – Gov Brd Mem.
WARREN HARWOOD 9,529 29.47%
RICK HAZELTINE 5,210 16.11%
JUDITH A. CHUIDIAN 6,504 20.11%
SUZANNE KITCHENS 10,937 33.82%

Santa Paula School District – Gov Brd Mem.
GARY D. MARSHALL 1,741 22.42%
TIM HICKS 1,414 18.21%
OFELIA V. DE LA TORRE 1,771 22.80%
GINGER GHERARDI 1,031 13.28%
RICK CADMAN 1,773 22.83%

Supervisor – 5th District
JOHN C. ZARAGOZA 14,897 54.14%
JOHN K. FLYNN 12,472 45.33%

Camarillo City Council
DON WAUNCH 9,346 30.90%
DAVID P. SCHLANGEN 7,561 25.00%
KEVIN KILDEE 13,211 43.68%

Fillmore City Council
OMERO MARTINEZ 1,109 12.56%
GAYLE WASHBURN 1,367 15.48%
MARCOZ HERNANDEZ SR. 858 9.71%
ROYCE DAVIS JR. 794 8.99%
STEVE CONAWAY 1,190 13.47%
M. CECILIA CUEVAS 1,144 12.95%
NORRIS PENNINGTON 1,018 11.53%
JAMEY BROOKS 1,333 15.09%

Fillmore City Clerk
CLAY WESTLING 1,781 52.54%
SHIRLEY J. SPITLER 1,585 46.76%

Fillmore City Treasurer
ANGELICA RICHARDSON 1,030 30.10%
GRACE M. DONAHUE 974 28.46%
NORMA E. GUTIERREZ 1,399 40.88%

Moorpark City Mayor
JANICE S. PARVIN 8,596 95.76%

Moorpark City Council
JOSE ”JOSEPH” MAGDALENO 2,613 16.39%
KEITH F. MILLHOUSE 5,400 33.86%
ROSEANN MIKOS 5,143 32.25%
ROBERT ”BOB” FREEMAN 2,717 17.04%

Ojai City Council
MIKE LENEHAN 536 11.53%
RAE HANSTAD 790 17.00%
MARY SUE HORGAN 1,057 22.74%
SUZA FRANCINA 969 20.85%
BETSY CLAPP 1,275 27.43%

Ojai City Clerk
CARLON STROBEL 2,077 98.02%

Ojai City Treasurer
ALAN RAINS 2,174 97.40%

Oxnard City Mayor
ROBERT LEE SUMPTER 1,631 5.13%
THOMAS E. HOLDEN 18,061 56.77%
TIM FLYNN 11,856 37.27%

Oxnard City Council
CARMEN RAMIREZ 8,775 17.37%
BRYAN A. MACDONALD 8,330 16.49%
SAUL MEDINA 7,181 14.22%
LAWRENCE PAUL STEIN 2,844 5.63%
ARTHUR JOE LÓPEZ 5,484 10.86%
DEIRDRE FRANK 4,725 9.36%
AL VELASQUEZ 1,867 3.70%
IRENE G. PINKARD 10,438 20.67%
ENRIQUE PETRIS 594 1.18%

Oxnard City Clerk
DANIEL MARTINEZ 26,382 97.16%

Oxnard City Treasurer
MARTIN D. JONES 6,241 21.14%
DANIELLE ”DANIE” NAVAS 22,904 77.59%

Port Hueneme City Council
KESA RYONO 963 16.12%
SYLVIA MUÑOZ SCHNOPP 1,415 23.68%
ADA SETO 184 3.08%
LANCE LIVERMORE 629 10.53%
ELLIS L. GREEN 1,178 19.72%
DOUGLAS BREEZE 1,567 26.23%

Santa Paula City Council
FRED W. ROBINSON 2,775 32.85%
JENNIFER A. MATOS 2,749 32.54%
JAMES ”JIM” TOVIAS 2,863 33.89%

Santa Paula City Clerk
JUDY RICE 4,575 97.63%

Santa Paula City Treasurer
SANDRA ”SANDY” EASLEY 4,699 98.31%

Simi Valley City Mayor
PAUL MILLER 29,599 78.66%
BRUCE WITKIN 5,001 13.29%
ED LANG 2,811 7.47%

Simi Valley City Council
BARBRA WILLIAMSON 17,074 29.02%
GERALD F. SMITH 3,433 5.83%
STEVE SOJKA 21,045 35.77%
DANIEL R. JENKINS 5,043 8.57%
MICHAEL THOMAS JUDGE 10,128 17.21%
RICHARD PAUL CARTER 1,939 3.30%

Thousand Oaks City Council
RAMAUL RUSH 644 0.99%
HOLLY LA RUE 11,285 17.41%
ERNEST J. LE GAULT 4,625 7.14%
AL ADAM 11,820 18.24%
G. GREGORY AKREY 3,871 5.97%
JACQUI IRWIN 19,305 29.78%
THOMAS P. GLANCY 13,078 20.18%

Bell Canyon Comm Serv Dir.
GERARD DOUGLAS 374 24.80%
WILLIAM E. CROCKETT 302 20.03%
HOWARD J. CHRISTIE 317 21.02%
JOHN J. TICKNER 192 12.73%
LANA TICKNER 315 20.89%

Channel Island Beach Comm. Serv. Dir.
SUSAN M. MC DONALD 281 20.07%
KEITH A. MOORE 459 32.79%
JIM HENSLEY 395 28.21%
KAYE J. CRANDALL 260 18.57%

Oxnard Harbor District
JESS J. RAMIREZ 13,031 26.00%
MANUEL M. LOPEZ 14,239 28.41%
DANIEL HULTGEN 6,854 13.68%
ARLENE NAOMI FRASER 8,307 16.58%
ANTHONY VOLANTE 7,355 14.68%

Oak Park MAC
DEREK ROSS 2,139 35.15%
MICHAEL R. MC REYNOLDS 1,953 32.09%
DREW FINE 567 9.32%
ALON GLICKSTEIN 1,248 20.51%

Ojai Valley MAC DIV 7
ALAN SALTZMAN 2,898 42.64%
GERALD ”JERRY” KAPLAN 3,777 55.58%

Ojai Valley Sanitary District DIV 1
WILLIAM M. STONE 465 48.95%
GEORGE GALGAS 470 49.47%

Ojai Valley Sanitary District DIV 3
FRANK MC NERNEY 113 11.71%
PETE KAISER 618 64.04%
JEFF KETELSEN 220 22.80%

Triunfo Sanitation District
RONALD ”RON” STARK 4,353 47.00%
MICHAEL L. PAULE 4,866 52.54%

Castaic Lake Water District Short Term
No information

Castaic Lake Water District DIV 3
No information

Meiners Oaks Water District
NORM DAVIS 475 35.82%
JAMES BARRETT 506 38.16%
KAROL BALLANTINE 329 24.81%

Calleguas Municipal Water District DIV 2
JOHN M. ECKLUND 7,701 23.68%
SCOTT H. QUADY 14,147 43.50%
JEFFREY A. BORENSTEIN 10,464 32.17%

Casitas Municipal Water District DIV 2
JIM WORD 1,652 81.46%
DAVID L. NORRDIN 341 16.81%

Casitas Municipal Water District DIV 3
PETE KAISER 2,305 65.88%
JEFF KETELSEN 1,146 32.75%

Measure P Ojai S.D. Parcel Tax
YES 4,853 65.42%
NO 2,565 34.58%

Measure Q Santa Paula Union High S.D. Bond
BONDS YES 3,861 70.96%
BONDS NO 1,580 29.04%

Measure R Oak Park Sch. Dist. Bond
BONDS YES 2,934 57.00%
BONDS NO 2,213 43.00%

Measure S Moorpark Sch. Dist. Bond
BONDS YES 6,932 65.64%
BONDS NO 3,629 34.36%

Measure U Camarillo Sch. Dist.
YES 30,175 48.76%
NO 31,712 51.24%

Measure T Board of Sup. Term Limits
YES 159,016 76.96%
NO 47,600 23.04%

Measure H City of Fillmore North Specific Plan Ref
YES 1,881 60.02%
NO 1,253 39.98%

Measure I City of Fillmore General Plan Amendment
YES 1,877 56.71%
NO 1,433 43.29%

Measure O City of Oxnard Sales Tax
YES 20,088 65.57%
NO 10,547 34.43%

Measure V City of Oxnard Traffic Init.
YES 11,678 38.26%
NO 18,848 61.74%

Measure W City of Pt. Hueneme Sales Tax
YES 2,774 71.48%
NO 1,107 28.52%

Measure L Blanchard Library Appropriations
YES 3,577 67.40%
NO 1,730 32.60%

Measure M Piru Cemetary Maint.
YES 299 86.67%
NO 46 13.33%

The Ventura County Democratic Central Committee invites Democrats and Independents in Ventura County to celebrate our President Elect, Barack Obama.

Join our Flash Gathering and Victory Bar Hop in Downtown Ventura night clubs, on Saturday night, November 8, 2008, from 7:30 pm until 2:00 am.

Wear Obama buttons, t-shirts and hats. Greet other revelers. Dance in the streets.

This is a “No Host” event to help happy Democrats, Independents and Obama supporters find each other and celebrate.

Visit our Facebook group “Ventura County Democratic Party” or website at VenturaCountyDemocrats.com

Schedule:

We’re starting at 7:30 p.m. at the El Rey Cantina – 294 E. Main Street – full bar, food till 1:00, open until 1:30 a.m.

Then at 9:00 p.m. we’re moving to My Florist Café and Bakery – 76 South Oak Street – full bar, food until 12:00, live Jazz Reggae music, open until 12 p.m.

At 10:30 p.m. we’ll be at It’s All Good – 533 E. Main Street – full bar, food, live music, open until 2:00 a.m.

12:00 p.m. we return to the El Rey Cantina, or where ever.

Other Bars You Might See Us In:

Paddy’s: 2 West Main Street – Full bar, top-40s dance and jazz DJs, open until 2:00 a.m.
Franky’s Place: 456 E. Main Street – full bar, food, dueling pianos, open until 11:00 p.m.
Charline’s Urban Tapas and Wine Bar: 546 E. Main Street, Old School R & B 8 -12 pm.
Watermark: 598 E. Main Street – full bar, food until 11:00, open until 1:00 a.m.

Flyer

Map

Title: Watch the Election Returns
Location: Ventura County Rainbow Alliance 4567 Telephone Rd. Suite 100 Ventura, California 93003
Description:
After the Polls Close at 8:00 PM

* Large Screen TV
* Food
* Drink (non-alcoholic)
* Fun!

Celebrate Our Democratic Victories!
Start Time: 20:00
Date: 2008-11-04
End Time: 23:00

Title: Hannah-Beth Jackson Election Night Celebration
Location: Crowne Plaza Ventura Beach Top of the Harbor
Description: Join us on Election Night

After all our hard work, we hope everyone will join us in celebrating on Election Night in Santa Barbara and Ventura. Here are the details:

SANTA BARBARA
Stateside Restaurant
1114 State Street
8:30 PM

VENTURA
Crowne Plaza Ventura Beach
Top of the Harbor
450 East Harbor Blvd.
8:30 PM
Start Date: 2008-11-04
Start Time: 19:00
End Date: 2008-11-05
End Time: 23:00

Title: Drinking Liberally Camarillo
Location: JJ Brewsky\’s 2433 Ventura Blvd in the heart of Old Town Camarillo Camarillo, CA, 93003
Link out: Click here
Description: # When? Second and Fourth Wednesday of each month, 7:00 pm
# Where? JJ Brewsky\’s, 2433 Ventura Blvd (in the heart of Old Town Camarillo)
# Hosted by Marie Davis | Mark Eggertsen | Brian Mack

Start Time: 19:00
Date: 2008-11-12
End Time: 21:00

Title: Election Night – Camarillo Democratic Club
Location: Camarillo Democratic Club Campaign Office, 7277 Daily Road, Camarillo, CA
Link out: Click here
Description: Pizza and whatever. Goes until the final word on the elections come in.
Free
Call Jack Phillips at the address below to RSVP.
Space limited.
Start Time: 7:00
Date: 2008-11-04
End Time: 12:00